Revised 07/06/2017; new text is in green font
- Figures for Population Decline Because of the HIV Pandemic in the United States
- Thoughts on Mitigation
- Better Treatment Methods
- Better Growth Rate if We Increase the Birth Rate
- Possible Lifestyle Changes to Assist Population Growth
- Thoughts for Parents of Young Children
- Advantages of Voluntary, Free Testing in Elementary Schools
- Advantages of Diagnosing and Treating Children
- Thoughts on Targeting of Elementary School Children by the Drug Trade
- Drug-Related Violence and HIV Risk in the Santa Monica Mountains
- Possible Sexual Predators at the Victory Trailhead in the San Fernando Valley
- Possible Sexual Predators in Chatsworth Park South, in the San Fernando Valley
- Possible Danger to Young Boys in Matinee and Department Store Restrooms in the San Fernando Valley
- Positive Possible Changes in Lifestyle to Help Stabilize Our Population
- On Very Early Marriage, and Chastity Until First Child Is Born
- On Parents and Grandparents Helping to Raise Children
- On Family-Value-Oriented Solutions
- On Joy in Childbirth
- Statistics and Estimates on Upcoming Negative Population Growth in the United States
- 2014 United States Statistics
- Estimates and Calculations
- United States vs. African Population in 2017
- More Information
Here’s a video with a projection of mild negative population growth for the next 10 years in the United States, due to the HIV pandemic. Also in the video are suggestions for ways to stabilize the United States population during that time. There’s a Summary after the video …
VIDEO BY ALICE
SUMMARY OF THE VIDEO
Hello, Dear Ones, this is Alice. I Am of the Stars.
Figures for Population Decline Because of the HIV Pandemic in the United States
I’ve crunched some numbers and come up with some figures for population decline because of the HIV pandemic here in the United States over the next 10 years. I’ll put the figures in the blog, and I thought I’d also put them in the video for my youtube viewers.
Some of the data that I really need … such as the 2016 births and deaths in the United States … are just not available right now. But I do have paired data for births and deaths in the United States as of 2014.
There were 2.626 million deaths in the United States in 2014, as compared to 3.986 million births in the United States then. That would be a 0.8% population growth in the United States in 2014 (a little less than 1%).
And I have figures for population growth as of 2017 in the United States: The figure was, a little less than 1% positive change in population. It’s 0.73%. You can compare this to the percent change of population in Africa as of 2017: It was 2.5% positive change. When we say “as of 2017” I believe what’s meant is “the most recent data available as of 2017”; that might be 2014 or 2015, for all I know.
Nevertheless, going on what’s available, you can see that, in Africa, which is hard hit by the HIV pandemic, there’s still a 2.5% population growth, and pretty much steady around that range for the last few years. I believe this has to do with the greater fertility rate in Africa, because it surely doesn’t have to do with better treatment as far as drugs are concerned. Africa is somewhat underserved, compared to the United States, as I understand it, in that respect.
So now to get back to the United States, and the blossoming bell curve here, the following is a conservative estimate … I had first thought it would be much greater; in fact I still think that. But I err on the side of conservatism for the sake of my readers. This is the conservative part:
I’m estimating 50% survival rate to puberty for the births that take place in the United States. That’s assuming treatment with proper antiviral medications for neonates immediately after birth, if the mother has HIV or AIDS. So, say, a 50% survival rate to puberty, including all children, not just the children with HIV.
If that happens, then what we’ll have, according to my figures, is 0.2 % population decline per year for the next 10 years; in other words, slightly negative population growth. So we should plan for that, and figure out what to do.
Thoughts on Mitigation
Better Treatment Methods. In the meantime, we can also look forward to new discoveries with regard to treatment of the HIV virus, and ways of living that will bolster the immune system, I feel.
Better Growth Rate if We Increase the Birth Rate. Also, we could increase the birth rate here, especially with regard to parents that don’t have HIV yet. So that’s a possibility; that’s something that might be looked forward to.
Possible Lifestyle Changes to Assist Population Growth. And furthermore, I have an idea that I’ll discuss further on in the video, about a change of lifestyle that might be extremely beneficial.
Thoughts for Parents of Young Children
Advantages of Voluntary, Free Testing in Elementary Schools. I think that we’ve had a sudden creeping up upon us of this HIV epidemic, and that, of the children reaching puberty right now, almost all of them will have been infected with HIV by the time they reach puberty. That’s what I think we’ll find.
I believe testing has been insufficient. Testing should be freely available, on a volunteer basis, at parents’ request, through schools, at no charge. That would give us a better grasp of the pandemic amongst children.
Advantages of Diagnosing and Treating Children. This is for parents: We need to know whether the children have HIV, because there are treatments available for young people, that would improve their chances of surviving if, in fact, they have HIV.
Thoughts on Targeting of Elementary School Children by the Drug Trade. Further, I’d like to just mention to parents that I believe that the drug trade in the United States is marketing to elementary schools right now; maybe even preschools. And I believe that they’re soliciting from amongst the economically deprived members of school classes throughout the United States, pushers of drugs who are 8 years of age or so … old enough to be able to hold their own physically in fist fights and so forth, against younger children.
I believe this is a conscious campaign by the drug industry in the United States, to get children hooked very early. The result is that children are often exposed to HIV infection by the people selling narcotics to the children, who often ask the children for sexual favors … this is my intuitive grasp of the situation … They ask these children for sexual favors in return for giving them drugs. And it’s the sexual favors that cause the children to be infected with HIV.
Because of the lifestyle of young people today, once one child is infected with HIV in an elementary school, all of the children are at risk of being infected within a year or two. So there’s that for parents to look out for.
Drug-Related Violence and HIV Risk in the Santa Monica Mountains. Here in Los Angeles, my intuition tells me that there are a few other areas of danger zones for parents to know about with regard to their children. One, I think, is the parks, especially the Santa Monica Mountains parks right now.
- I’ve seen evidence of marijuana use in Malibu Creek State Park, near the rock pools, and Top of Reseda Trailhead.
- I’ve also seen one person at Gillette Ranch who, I was told by a ranger at the Malibu Creek State Park kiosk, exhibited the signs of cocaine addiction. Those areas that I’ve seen or clairly might have drug-related difficulties a included Gillette Ranch, Malibu Creek State Park, and Paramount Ranch. I just have a feeling that there’s cocaine use there sometimes now, both during the week and on the weekends, that might result in acts of violence … say, rape … in those areas. So parents should be very careful about letting their children hike unsupervised in those areas both weekdays and weekends.
Because I’m an avid hiker and a long-time Sierra Club member, I’m very familiar with all the trails around the Santa Monica Mountains.
Possible Sexual Predators at the Victory Trailhead in the San Fernando Valley. And I’ve noticed, at the west end of Victory Blvd in the San Fernando Valley, the trailhead that goes into the Upper Las Virgenes Open Space Area, there is trouble there, possibly because of the restrooms there, to do with the very young adults from the surrounding neighborhoods being potentially preyed upon … at least, people looking out to do that with them, who appear to be of lower socioeconomic status. Also, it appears to me, just judging from the years that I was working at UCLA Medical Center in an area by the HIV clinic there at that time (so I’m familiar with the look of advanced AIDS), that there may be men, there at that area, who are looking out for the young adult boys with the chance, hopefully, of a sexual encounter which might result in HIV transmission to the youth of that area.
Possible Sexual Predators in Chatsworth Park South, in the San Fernando Valley. And also I’ve noticed, in Chatsworth Park South, in Chatsworth, in the San Fernando Valley, that there are people either living or lurking in the underbrush, the chaparral in those areas, in places where the young adults, especially young men, play after school.
So I would suggest parents advising their children to exert the utmost caution in regard to hiking and walking in, and exploring and adventuring in, the Santa Monica Mountains and the Santa Susana Mountains, until the danger, which came up in about 2016, I think, is cleared up. There’s that.
Also, I’ve noticed that, in the children’s movie matinees in the San Fernando Valley, it’s very important for mothers not to let their young sons go to the restrooms unattended. The young boys, I feel, should use the women’s restroom under the supervision of their mothers if there’s no other possibility.
Possible Danger to Young Boys in Matinee and Department Store Restrooms in the San Fernando Valley. That’s because I’ve seen one case, last year, of a young boy at a matinee being afraid to go to the restroom and his mother forcing him to go, not understanding the difficulty that he had apparently encountered before there. And of a young man in his 20s immediately going into the restroom after the child went in. The aspect of the person that went in was what the clair people call ‘predatory’, you know? He was up to no good, it seemed to me. The same sort of danger might be encountered in any bathrooms in urban areas, including those in department stores.
The thing of it is, at times when we think there is no danger, in the great open spaces around here, in a children’s matinee, or the like, parents need to look and see if there is danger. And talk to their children, especially about any close encounters that they’ve had.
Positive Possible Changes in Lifestyle to Help Stabilize Our Population
And now to move on to positive possible changes in lifestyle that might result in stabilizing our population in the United States in the coming years.
On Very Early Marriage, and Chastity Until First Child Is Born. I had one thought about a lifestyle change that might be helpful. I thought that, if young people were to marry very young, and remain faithful to each other until their first child has been born, then we might be able to stabilize the population despite the increase of HIV virus transmission.
Apparently, children that are born infected with the virus have a short life expectancy (about 9.4 years without any treatment) … too short to expect them to reproduce … and so it’s important to conserve the lives of the children that don’t have HIV, and to help them have a chance to have a child before they make a lifestyle choice that puts them at greater risk of infection with that virus.
On Parents and Grandparents Helping to Raise Children. I’m also thinking that, given the more lax standards of chastity in the world today, it might be a good idea to allow children to have children at a younger age … a very young age … say, soon after they become capable of doing so … and then make the rearing of these children the responsibility and joy of the greater family, including the parents of the children and the children themselves.
On Family-Value-Oriented Solutions. So that’s my thought. Probably there are other solutions. But I consider this to be one of the most family-value-oriented solution. I think that in this way we could improve the compassion, the compassionate feeling of family life in America, at a time of relative difficulty with regard to the progress of this pandemic.
On Joy in Childbirth. And we could increase the joy that parents and children feel when the children become pubescent, because their first acts of sexual union would be joyfully anticipated by the family instead of feared. And instead of resulting in abortion, which does cause, in my opinion, great Soul wounding, they would result in rejoicing.
That’s all for now. You all take care.
I wish you the very best in these trying times. I feel very certain that, as we draw together as communities, all across the United States, we’ll come to a greater understanding of family values, we’ll raise the most beautiful children there ever were, and we’ll stand up strong in the face of adversity, with the courage that it takes to meet this challenge.
And we will successfully persevere through it, and come out on the other side, the better for it. Love you all lots.
STATISTICS AND ESTIMATES ON UPCOMING
NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES
Here are the statistics and estimates given in the video:
2014 United States Statistics
3.986 million births (1) (as in 2014 in the United States) / 2 (rough estimate: 50% survival rate of children to puberty, with treatment) –> 1.993 M births of children surviving to puberty
Population in United States in 2014 = 318.9 million (3)
(5) “Population of Africa,” in Worldometers, http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/ … however, this figure changes from moment to moment …
“HIV in children: The State of Affairs,” by the World Health Organization: http://www.who.int/hiv/toronto2006/takingstockchildren.pdf ..
“Feature Story: Early Diagnosis and Treatment Save Babies from AIDS-Relad Death,” by UNAIDS, 27 MAY 2009S, http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2009/may/20090527unicef ..
“Preventing Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV After Birth,” by AIDSInfo, Last Reviewed: November 14, 2016: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/24/71/preventing-mother-to-child-transmission-of-hiv-after-birth ..
“Preventing Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV,” by AIDSInfo, Last Reviewed: May 16, 2017: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/24/50/preventing-mother-to-child-transmission-of-hiv ..
“Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in Pediatric HIV Infection: What’s New in the Guidelines,” by AIDSInfo, Last Updated: April 27, 2017; Last Reviewed: April 27, 2017: https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/guidelines/html/2/pediatric-arv-guidelines/0 ..
“How long could someone survive from birth with HIV without any treatment?”: https://www.quora.com/How-long-could-someone-survive-from-birth-with-HIV-without-any-treatment … the short answer apparently is that, without any treatment, none survive past 9.4 years; so treatment is very important.
“Overview of the HIV Pandemic, and of Data Suppression by the Centers for Disease Control,” by Alice B. Clagett *, 7/10/2016, http://wp.me/p2Rkym-5QE ..
“Overview of Surgical Risk, HIV, AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett *, 17 October 2016, http://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..
In love, light and joy, Alice B. Clagett
I Am of the Stars
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